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We are modeling the introduction of a novel pathogen into a completely susceptible population. In the cells below, I have provided you with the Matlab code for a simple stochastic SIR model, implemented using the "GillespieSSA" function
Simulating the stochastic model 100 times for
Since γ is 0.4 per day, per day
% Define the parameters
beta = 0.36;
gamma = 0.4;
n_sims = 100;
tf = 100; % Time frame changed to 100
% Calculate R0
R0 = beta / gamma
R0 = 0.9000
% Initial state values
initial_state_values = [1000000; 1; 0; 0]; % S, I, R, cum_inc
% Define the propensities and state change matrix
a = @(state) [beta * state(1) * state(2) / 1000000, gamma * state(2)];
nu = [-1, 0; 1, -1; 0, 1; 0, 0];
% Define the Gillespie algorithm function
function [t_values, state_values] = gillespie_ssa(initial_state, a, nu, tf)
t = 0;
state = initial_state(:); % Ensure state is a column vector
t_values = t;
state_values = state';
while t < tf
rates = a(state);
rate_sum = sum(rates);
if rate_sum == 0
break;
end
tau = -log(rand) / rate_sum;
t = t + tau;
r = rand * rate_sum;
cum_sum_rates = cumsum(rates);
reaction_index = find(cum_sum_rates >= r, 1);
state = state + nu(:, reaction_index);
% Update cumulative incidence if infection occurred
if reaction_index == 1
state(4) = state(4) + 1; % Increment cumulative incidence
end
t_values = [t_values; t];
state_values = [state_values; state'];
end
end
% Function to simulate the stochastic model multiple times and plot results
function simulate_stoch_model(beta, gamma, n_sims, tf, initial_state_values, R0, plot_type)
% Define the propensities and state change matrix
a = @(state) [beta * state(1) * state(2) / 1000000, gamma * state(2)];
nu = [-1, 0; 1, -1; 0, 1; 0, 0];
% Set random seed for reproducibility
rng(11);
% Initialize plot
figure;
hold on;
for i = 1:n_sims
[t, output] = gillespie_ssa(initial_state_values, a, nu, tf);
% Check if the simulation had only one step and re-run if necessary
while length(t) == 1
[t, output] = gillespie_ssa(initial_state_values, a, nu, tf);
end
if strcmp(plot_type, 'cumulative_incidence')
plot(t, output(:, 4), 'LineWidth', 2, 'Color', rand(1, 3));
elseif strcmp(plot_type, 'prevalence')
plot(t, output(:, 2), 'LineWidth', 2, 'Color', rand(1, 3));
end
end
xlabel('Time (days)');
if strcmp(plot_type, 'cumulative_incidence')
ylabel('Cumulative Incidence');
ylim([0 inf]);
elseif strcmp(plot_type, 'prevalence')
ylabel('Prevalence of Infection');
ylim([0 50]);
end
title(['Stochastic model output for R0 = ', num2str(R0)]);
subtitle([num2str(n_sims), ' simulations']);
xlim([0 tf]);
grid on;
hold off;
end
% Simulate the model 100 times and plot cumulative incidence
simulate_stoch_model(beta, gamma, n_sims, tf, initial_state_values, R0, 'cumulative_incidence');
% Simulate the model 100 times and plot prevalence
simulate_stoch_model(beta, gamma, n_sims, tf, initial_state_values, R0, 'prevalence');
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Before we begin, you will need to make sure you have 'sir_age_model.m' installed. Once you've downloaded this folder into your working directory, which can be located at your current folder. If you can see this file in your current folder, then it's safe to use it. If you choose to use MATLAB online or MATLAB Mobile, you may upload this to your MATLAB Drive.
This is the code for the SIR model stratified into 2 age groups (children and adults). For a detailed explanation of how to derive the force of infection by age group.
% Main script to run the SIR model simulation
% Initial state values
initial_state_values = [200000; 1; 0; 800000; 0; 0]; % [S1; I1; R1; S2; I2; R2]
% Parameters
parameters = [0.05; 7; 6; 1; 10; 1/5]; % [b; c_11; c_12; c_21; c_22; gamma]
% Time span for the simulation (3 months, with daily steps)
tspan = [0 90];
% Solve the ODE
[t, y] = ode45(@(t, y) sir_age_model(t, y, parameters), tspan, initial_state_values);
% Plotting the results
plot(t, y);
xlabel('Time (days)');
ylabel('Number of people');
legend('S1', 'I1', 'R1', 'S2', 'I2', 'R2');
title('SIR Model with Age Structure');
What was the cumulative incidence of infection during this epidemic? What proportion of those infections occurred in children?
In the SIR model, the cumulative incidence of infection is simply the decline in susceptibility.
% Assuming 'y' contains the simulation results from the ode45 function
% and 't' contains the time points
% Total cumulative incidence
total_cumulative_incidence = (y(1,1) - y(end,1)) + (y(1,4) - y(end,4));
fprintf('Total cumulative incidence: %f\n', total_cumulative_incidence);
% Cumulative incidence in children
cumulative_incidence_children = (y(1,1) - y(end,1));
% Proportion of infections in children
proportion_infections_children = cumulative_incidence_children / total_cumulative_incidence;
fprintf('Proportion of infections in children: %f\n', proportion_infections_children);
927,447 people became infected during this epidemic, 20.5% of which were children.
Which age group was most affected by the epidemic?
To answer this, we can calculate the proportion of children and adults that became infected.
% Assuming 'y' contains the simulation results from the ode45 function
% and 't' contains the time points
% Proportion of children that became infected
initial_children = 200000; % initial number of susceptible children
final_susceptible_children = y(end,1); % final number of susceptible children
proportion_infected_children = (initial_children - final_susceptible_children) / initial_children;
fprintf('Proportion of children that became infected: %f\n', proportion_infected_children);
% Proportion of adults that became infected
initial_adults = 800000; % initial number of susceptible adults
final_susceptible_adults = y(end,4); % final number of susceptible adults
proportion_infected_adults = (initial_adults - final_susceptible_adults) / initial_adults;
fprintf('Proportion of adults that became infected: %f\n', proportion_infected_adults);
Throughout this epidemic, 95% of all children and 92% of all adults were infected. Children were therefore slightly more affected in proportion to their population size, even though the majority of infections occurred in adults.
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