scenario generation using pdf

Hi,

I want to make some scenario using a probability distribution function and calculate the probability of each scenario(I need the probability for other executions) but I don't know how exactly. would you please give me some help or suggestions?

Answer 1

[Hari]

Hi Reza,

I understand that you want to generate scenarios using a probability distribution function and calculate the probability of each scenario for further executions.

You can follow the below steps to acheive the same:

• Choose a Probability Distribution: Select a probability distribution function (PDF) for your scenario. For example, let's use a normal distribution.

mu = 0; % Mean of the normal distribution
sigma = 1; % Standard deviation of the normal distribution
pd = makedist('Normal', 'mu', mu, 'sigma', sigma);

• Generate Random Scenarios: Use the "random" function to generate random scenarios based on the chosen distribution.

numScenarios = 1000; % Number of scenarios
scenarios = random(pd, numScenarios, 1);

• Calculate Probability of Each Scenario: Use the probability density function to calculate the probability of each generated scenario.

probabilities = pdf(pd, scenarios);

• Normalize Probabilities: Normalize the probabilities so that their sum equals 1, which is useful for comparing probabilities across different executions.

probabilities = probabilities / sum(probabilities);

• Visualize Scenarios and Probabilities: Plot the scenarios and their corresponding probabilities to visualize the distribution.

Sample output for the above example:

References:

• Refer to the documentation of "makedist" for creating probability distribution objects: https://www.mathworks.com/help/stats/makedist.html
• Refer to the documentation of "random" for generating random numbers: https://www.mathworks.com/help/stats/prob.normaldistribution.random.html
• Refer to the documentation of "pdf" for evaluating the probability density function: https://www.mathworks.com/help/stats/prob.normaldistribution.pdf.html

Hope this helps!