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cvpredict

Predict response using cross-validated direct forecasting model

Since R2023b

    Description

    example

    predictedY = cvpredict(CVMdl) predicts the test data response using the cross-validated direct forecasting model CVMdl. For each partition window in CVMdl.Partition and each horizon step in CVMdl.Horizon, the function predicts the response for test observations by using a model trained on training observations. If an observation is in more than one test set, the function returns the prediction for that observation, averaged over all test sets.

    Examples

    collapse all

    Create a cross-validated direct forecasting model using expanding window cross-validation. To evaluate the performance of the model:

    • Compute the mean squared error (MSE) on each test set using the cvloss object function.

    • For each test set, compare the true response values to the predicted response values using the cvpredict object function.

    Load the sample file TemperatureData.csv, which contains average daily temperature from January 2015 through July 2016. Read the file into a table. Observe the first eight observations in the table.

    Tbl = readtable("TemperatureData.csv");
    head(Tbl)
        Year       Month       Day    TemperatureF
        ____    ___________    ___    ____________
    
        2015    {'January'}     1          23     
        2015    {'January'}     2          31     
        2015    {'January'}     3          25     
        2015    {'January'}     4          39     
        2015    {'January'}     5          29     
        2015    {'January'}     6          12     
        2015    {'January'}     7          10     
        2015    {'January'}     8           4     
    

    Create a datetime variable t that contains the year, month, and day information for each observation in Tbl.

    numericMonth = month(datetime(Tbl.Month, ...
        InputFormat="MMMM"));
    t = datetime(Tbl.Year,numericMonth,Tbl.Day);

    Plot the temperature values in Tbl over time.

    plot(t,Tbl.TemperatureF)
    xlabel("Date")
    ylabel("Temperature in Fahrenheit")

    Figure contains an axes object. The axes object with xlabel Date, ylabel Temperature in Fahrenheit contains an object of type line.

    Create a direct forecasting model by using the data in Tbl. Train the model using a bagged ensemble of trees. All three of the predictors (Year, Month, and Day) are leading predictors because their future values are known. To create new predictors by shifting the leading predictor and response variables backward in time, specify the leading predictor lags and the response variable lags.

    Mdl = directforecaster(Tbl,"TemperatureF", ...
        Learner="bag", ...
        LeadingPredictors="all",LeadingPredictorLags={0:1,0:1,0:7}, ...
        ResponseLags=1:7)
    Mdl = 
      DirectForecaster
    
                      Horizon: 1
                 ResponseLags: [1 2 3 4 5 6 7]
            LeadingPredictors: [1 2 3]
         LeadingPredictorLags: {[0 1]  [0 1]  [0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7]}
                 ResponseName: 'TemperatureF'
               PredictorNames: {'Year'  'Month'  'Day'}
        CategoricalPredictors: 2
                     Learners: {[1x1 classreg.learning.regr.CompactRegressionEnsemble]}
                       MaxLag: 7
              NumObservations: 565
    
    
    

    Mdl is a DirectForecaster model object. By default, the horizon is one step ahead. That is, Mdl predicts a value that is one step into the future.

    Partition the time series data in Tbl using an expanding window cross-validation scheme. Create three training sets and three test sets, where each test set has 100 observations. Note that each observation in Tbl is in at most one test set.

    CVPartition = tspartition(size(Mdl.X,1),"ExpandingWindow",3, ...
        TestSize=100)
    CVPartition = 
      tspartition
    
                   Type: 'expanding-window'
        NumObservations: 565
            NumTestSets: 3
              TrainSize: [265 365 465]
               TestSize: [100 100 100]
               StepSize: 100
    
    
    

    The training sets increase in size from 265 observations in the first window to 465 observations in the third window.

    Create a cross-validated direct forecasting model using the partition specified in CVPartition. Inspect the Learners property of the resulting CVMdl object.

    CVMdl = crossval(Mdl,CVPartition)
    CVMdl = 
      PartitionedDirectForecaster
    
                    Partition: [1x1 tspartition]
                      Horizon: 1
                 ResponseLags: [1 2 3 4 5 6 7]
            LeadingPredictors: [1 2 3]
         LeadingPredictorLags: {[0 1]  [0 1]  [0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7]}
                 ResponseName: 'TemperatureF'
               PredictorNames: {'Year'  'Month'  'Day'}
        CategoricalPredictors: 2
                     Learners: {3x1 cell}
                       MaxLag: 7
              NumObservations: 565
    
    
    
    CVMdl.Learners
    ans=3×1 cell array
        {1x1 timeseries.forecaster.CompactDirectForecaster}
        {1x1 timeseries.forecaster.CompactDirectForecaster}
        {1x1 timeseries.forecaster.CompactDirectForecaster}
    
    

    CVMdl is a PartitionedDirectForecaster model object. The crossval function trains CVMdl.Learners{1} using the observations in the first training set, CVMdl.Learner{2} using the observations in the second training set, and CVMdl.Learner{3} using the observations in the third training set.

    Compute the average test set MSE.

    averageMSE = cvloss(CVMdl)
    averageMSE = 53.3480
    

    To obtain more information, compute the MSE for each test set.

    individualMSE = cvloss(CVMdl,Mode="individual")
    individualMSE = 3×1
    
       44.1352
       84.0695
       31.8393
    
    

    The models trained on the first and third training sets seem to perform better than the model trained on the second training set.

    For each test set observation, predict the temperature value using the corresponding model in CVMdl.Learners.

    predictedY = cvpredict(CVMdl);
    predictedY(260:end,:)
    ans=306×1 table
        TemperatureF_Step1
        __________________
    
                 NaN      
                 NaN      
                 NaN      
                 NaN      
                 NaN      
                 NaN      
              50.963      
              57.363      
               57.04      
              60.705      
              59.606      
              58.302      
              58.023      
               61.39      
              67.229      
              61.083      
          ⋮
    
    

    Only the last 300 observations appear in any test set. For observations that do not appear in a test set, the predicted response value is NaN.

    For each test set, plot the true response values and the predicted response values.

    tiledlayout(3,1)
    
    nexttile
    idx1 = test(CVPartition,1);
    plot(t(idx1),Tbl.TemperatureF(idx1))
    hold on
    plot(t(idx1),predictedY.TemperatureF_Step1(idx1))
    legend("True Response","Predicted Response", ...
        Location="eastoutside")
    xlabel("Date")
    ylabel("Temperature")
    title("Test Set 1")
    hold off
    
    nexttile
    idx2 = test(CVPartition,2);
    plot(t(idx2),Tbl.TemperatureF(idx2))
    hold on
    plot(t(idx2),predictedY.TemperatureF_Step1(idx2))
    legend("True Response","Predicted Response", ...
        Location="eastoutside")
    xlabel("Date")
    ylabel("Temperature")
    title("Test Set 2")
    hold off
    
    nexttile
    idx3 = test(CVPartition,3);
    plot(t(idx3),Tbl.TemperatureF(idx3))
    hold on
    plot(t(idx3),predictedY.TemperatureF_Step1(idx3))
    legend("True Response","Predicted Response", ...
        Location="eastoutside")
    xlabel("Date")
    ylabel("Temperature")
    title("Test Set 3")
    hold off

    Figure contains 3 axes objects. Axes object 1 with title Test Set 1, xlabel Date, ylabel Temperature contains 2 objects of type line. These objects represent True Response, Predicted Response. Axes object 2 with title Test Set 2, xlabel Date, ylabel Temperature contains 2 objects of type line. These objects represent True Response, Predicted Response. Axes object 3 with title Test Set 3, xlabel Date, ylabel Temperature contains 2 objects of type line. These objects represent True Response, Predicted Response.

    Overall, the cross-validated direct forecasting model is able to predict the trend in temperatures. If you are satisfied with the performance of the cross-validated model, you can use the full DirectForecaster model Mdl for forecasting at time steps beyond the available data.

    Create a partitioned direct forecasting model using holdout validation. To evaluate the performance of the model:

    • At each horizon step, compute the root relative squared error (RRSE) on the test set using the cvloss object function.

    • At each horizon step, compare the true response values to the predicted response values using the cvpredict object function.

    Load the sample file TemperatureData.csv, which contains average daily temperature from January 2015 through July 2016. Read the file into a table. Observe the first eight observations in the table.

    Tbl = readtable("TemperatureData.csv");
    head(Tbl)
        Year       Month       Day    TemperatureF
        ____    ___________    ___    ____________
    
        2015    {'January'}     1          23     
        2015    {'January'}     2          31     
        2015    {'January'}     3          25     
        2015    {'January'}     4          39     
        2015    {'January'}     5          29     
        2015    {'January'}     6          12     
        2015    {'January'}     7          10     
        2015    {'January'}     8           4     
    

    Create a datetime variable t that contains the year, month, and day information for each observation in Tbl.

    numericMonth = month(datetime(Tbl.Month, ...
        InputFormat="MMMM"));
    t = datetime(Tbl.Year,numericMonth,Tbl.Day);

    Plot the temperature values in Tbl over time.

    plot(t,Tbl.TemperatureF)
    xlabel("Date")
    ylabel("Temperature in Fahrenheit")

    Figure contains an axes object. The axes object with xlabel Date, ylabel Temperature in Fahrenheit contains an object of type line.

    Create a direct forecasting model by using the data in Tbl. Specify the horizon steps as one, two, and three steps ahead. Train a model at each horizon using a bagged ensemble of trees. All three of the predictors (Year, Month, and Day) are leading predictors because their future values are known. To create new predictors by shifting the leading predictor and response variables backward in time, specify the leading predictor lags and the response variable lags.

    rng("default")
    Mdl = directforecaster(Tbl,"TemperatureF", ...
        Horizon=1:3,Learner="bag", ...
        LeadingPredictors="all",LeadingPredictorLags={0:1,0:1,0:7}, ...
        ResponseLags=1:7)
    Mdl = 
      DirectForecaster
    
                      Horizon: [1 2 3]
                 ResponseLags: [1 2 3 4 5 6 7]
            LeadingPredictors: [1 2 3]
         LeadingPredictorLags: {[0 1]  [0 1]  [0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7]}
                 ResponseName: 'TemperatureF'
               PredictorNames: {'Year'  'Month'  'Day'}
        CategoricalPredictors: 2
                     Learners: {3x1 cell}
                       MaxLag: 7
              NumObservations: 565
    
    
    

    Mdl is a DirectForecaster model object. Mdl consists of three regression models: Mdl.Learners{1}, which predicts one step ahead; Mdl.Learners{2}, which predicts two steps ahead; and Mdl.Learners{3}, which predicts three steps ahead.

    Partition the time series data in Tbl using a holdout validation scheme. Reserve 20% of the observations for testing.

    holdoutPartition = tspartition(size(Mdl.X,1),"Holdout",0.20)
    holdoutPartition = 
      tspartition
    
                   Type: 'holdout'
        NumObservations: 565
            NumTestSets: 1
              TrainSize: 452
               TestSize: 113
    
    
    

    The test set consists of the latest 113 observations.

    Create a partitioned direct forecasting model using the partition specified in holdoutPartition.

    holdoutMdl = crossval(Mdl,holdoutPartition)
    holdoutMdl = 
      PartitionedDirectForecaster
    
                    Partition: [1x1 tspartition]
                      Horizon: [1 2 3]
                 ResponseLags: [1 2 3 4 5 6 7]
            LeadingPredictors: [1 2 3]
         LeadingPredictorLags: {[0 1]  [0 1]  [0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7]}
                 ResponseName: 'TemperatureF'
               PredictorNames: {'Year'  'Month'  'Day'}
        CategoricalPredictors: 2
                     Learners: {[1x1 timeseries.forecaster.CompactDirectForecaster]}
                       MaxLag: 7
              NumObservations: 565
    
    
    

    holdoutMdl is a PartitionedDirectForecaster model object. Because holdoutMdl uses holdout validation rather than a cross-validation scheme, the Learners property of the object contains one CompactDirectForecaster model only.

    Like Mdl, holdoutMdl contains three regression models. The crossval function trains holdoutMdl.Learners{1}.Learners{1}, holdoutMdl.Learners{1}.Learners{2}, and holdoutMdl.Learners{1}.Learners{3} using the same training data. However, the three models use different response variables because each model predicts values for a different horizon step.

    holdoutMdl.Learners{1}.Learners{1}.ResponseName
    ans = 
    'TemperatureF_Step1'
    
    holdoutMdl.Learners{1}.Learners{2}.ResponseName
    ans = 
    'TemperatureF_Step2'
    
    holdoutMdl.Learners{1}.Learners{3}.ResponseName
    ans = 
    'TemperatureF_Step3'
    

    Compute the root relative squared error (RRSE) on the test data at each horizon step. Use the helper function computeRRSE (shown at the end of this example). The RRSE indicates how well a model performs relative to the simple model, which always predicts the average of the true values. In particular, when the RRSE is less than 1, the model performs better than the simple model.

    holdoutRRSE = cvloss(holdoutMdl,LossFun=@computeRRSE)
    holdoutRRSE = 1×3
    
        0.4797    0.5889    0.6103
    
    

    At each horizon, the direct forecasting model seems to perform better than the simple model.

    For each test set observation, predict the temperature value using the corresponding model in holdoutMdl.Learners.

    predictedY = cvpredict(holdoutMdl);
    predictedY(450:end,:)
    ans=116×3 table
        TemperatureF_Step1    TemperatureF_Step2    TemperatureF_Step3
        __________________    __________________    __________________
    
                 NaN                   NaN                   NaN      
                 NaN                   NaN                   NaN      
                 NaN                   NaN                   NaN      
              41.063                39.758                41.234      
              33.721                36.507                37.719      
              36.987                35.133                37.719      
              38.644                34.598                36.444      
              38.917                34.576                36.275      
              45.888                37.005                 38.34      
              48.516                42.762                 41.05      
              44.882                46.816                43.881      
              35.057                45.301                47.048      
                31.1                41.473                42.948      
              31.817                37.314                42.946      
              33.166                38.419                  41.3      
              40.279                38.432                40.533      
          ⋮
    
    

    Recall that only the latest 113 observations appear in the test set. For observations that do not appear in the test set, the predicted response value is NaN.

    For each test set, plot the true response values and the predicted response values.

    tiledlayout(3,1)
    
    idx = test(holdoutPartition);
    
    nexttile
    plot(t(idx),Tbl.TemperatureF(idx))
    hold on
    plot(t(idx),predictedY.TemperatureF_Step1(idx))
    legend("True Response","Predicted Response", ...
        Location="eastoutside")
    xlabel("Date")
    ylabel("Temperature")
    title("Horizon 1")
    hold off
    
    nexttile
    plot(t(idx),Tbl.TemperatureF(idx))
    hold on
    plot(t(idx),predictedY.TemperatureF_Step2(idx))
    legend("True Response","Predicted Response", ...
        Location="eastoutside")
    xlabel("Date")
    ylabel("Temperature")
    title("Horizon 2")
    hold off
    
    nexttile
    plot(t(idx),Tbl.TemperatureF(idx))
    hold on
    plot(t(idx),predictedY.TemperatureF_Step3(idx))
    legend("True Response","Predicted Response", ...
        Location="eastoutside")
    xlabel("Date")
    ylabel("Temperature")
    title("Horizon 3")
    hold off

    Figure contains 3 axes objects. Axes object 1 with title Horizon 1, xlabel Date, ylabel Temperature contains 2 objects of type line. These objects represent True Response, Predicted Response. Axes object 2 with title Horizon 2, xlabel Date, ylabel Temperature contains 2 objects of type line. These objects represent True Response, Predicted Response. Axes object 3 with title Horizon 3, xlabel Date, ylabel Temperature contains 2 objects of type line. These objects represent True Response, Predicted Response.

    Overall, holdoutMdl is able to predict the trend in temperatures, although it seems to perform best when forecasting one step ahead. If you are satisfied with the performance of the partitioned model, you can use the full DirectForecaster model Mdl for forecasting at time steps beyond the available data.

    Helper Function

    The helper function computeRRSE computes the RRSE given the true response variable trueY and the predicted values predY. This code creates the computeRRSE helper function.

    function rrse = computeRRSE(trueY,predY)
        error = trueY(:) - predY(:);
        meanY = mean(trueY(:),"omitnan");
        rrse = sqrt(sum(error.^2,"omitnan")/sum((trueY(:) - meanY).^2,"omitnan"));
    end

    Input Arguments

    collapse all

    Cross-validated direct forecasting model, specified as a PartitionedDirectForecaster model object.

    Output Arguments

    collapse all

    Predicted responses, returned as a numeric matrix, table, or timetable. predictedY has the same data type as CVMdl.Y and is of size n-by-h, where n is the number of observations (CVMdl.NumObservations) and h is the number of horizon steps (that is, the number of elements in CVMdl.Horizon).

    predictedY contains NaN values for observations that are not included in any test set. To identify the observations in test set i, you can use test(CVMdl.Partition,i).

    Version History

    Introduced in R2023b